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Central Economic Work Conference: Strengthening Expectation Management and Promoting Policy Implementation and Expectation Guidance in Coordination. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to coordinate development and safety, do a good job in safety production, and effectively prevent and respond to social security incidents in a timely manner. Strengthen synergy, oppose departmentalism, and form a joint force for implementation. Strengthen the expected management, promote policy implementation and expected guidance in coordination, and enhance policy guidance and influence. At the same time, we should accurately grasp the situation of the world, the country, the party and the society, strengthen strategic planning, and formulate suggestions for the 10 th Five-Year Plan of the Central Committee. (Xinhua News Agency)Baidu and Geely have started the internal transfer process to pay social security for employees of Jiyue in November. On the evening of December 12, the employee representative of Jiyue, Xia Yiping, CEO of Jiyue, and two major shareholders of Geely and Baidu held a closed meeting. Interface news learned that after several rounds of communication, Baidu and Geely are taking the transfer process to pay the arrears of social security for employees in November. (Interface)European Central Bank President Lagarde: The proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been agreed by everyone. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been agreed by everyone, and inflation is expected to reach 2% in the medium term. There are some discussions about cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, but it is generally believed that a 25 basis point cut is the right move. The wage level will reach a level consistent with the inflation target of 2%.

Spot gold fell by $5 in the short term and is now reported at $2,704 per ounce.The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the third time in a row to boost the sluggish economy. The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the third time in a row on Thursday, and hinted that with inflation approaching 2% and the economy in trouble, it will further cut interest rates next year. The deposit interest rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 3%, which was in line with the expectations of all but one of the analysts surveyed. This makes the total easing range since June reach 100 basis points. In its statement, the European Central Bank abandoned the wording that the policy would be "fully restrictive for a necessary long time", indicating that its position has changed. "The Management Committee is determined to ensure that the inflation rate is sustainably stabilized at the medium-term target of 2%." The European Central Bank said on Thursday. "The central bank will adopt a method of relying on data and meeting one after another to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance."Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.

Insiders: Incorporating national debt and index funds into the scope of personal pension products is expected to increase the scale of deposit. On December 12, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the General Administration of Financial Supervision and other five departments officially issued the Notice on the Full Implementation of Personal Pension System, which stipulated that national debt should be included in the scope of personal pension products on the basis of existing financial products such as wealth management products, savings deposits, commercial pension insurance and Public Offering of Fund. E Fund believes that the index funds included in personal pension products are mainly broad-based and dividend products, which are also in line with the long-term stable value-added investment goal of pensions. Because the broad-based index reflects the overall performance of a certain type of market, covering a wide range of industries, with a large number of constituent stocks and scattered risks, the pension investment time is often as long as several decades. In a market with healthy and sustainable economic development prospects and long-term upward trends, the broad-based index can help pension investors share the fruits of economic growth and obtain long-term stable returns. It is reported that with the inclusion of national debt in the scope of personal pension products, it is widely expected that this move will further increase the scale of personal pension payment. (per warp net)European Central Bank President Lagarde: Since July 2023, the flexibility of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) has not been used, and the transmission protection tool (TPI) has not been discussed.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.